East Carolina did have a 461-266 yd edge vs Tulane but TU actually led 10-7 at one point after an 11 yd punt set them up for a 47/2pl TD drive. It was 17-13 at the half and 27-13 when TU was SOD on 4&9 at the EC44. EC went 56/5pl getting a TD with 2:11 left to go up 34-14.
Arizona St did score 3 TD’s in the 1Q and led 21-0 vs a banged up Colorado team. Tyler Hansen did not start but came off the bench in CU’s 3rd series and threw for 285 yards. ASU only had a 522-420 yd edge. They led 31-7 at the half and it was 34-7 when CU was SOD on 4&gl at the ASU1. CU then fmbl’d the punt at their own 13 and ASU got a TD to go up 41-7 but CU answered with a TD with 12:45 left, 41-14. CU was SOD on 4&2 at the ASU49 with 8:23 left and ASU went 51/5pl for an 8 yd TD run with 6:20 left. Hirschman came in at QB for Colorado and they went 70/7pl. On 2&11 from the ASU15 Ford got a 12 yd run to the 2 but fmbl’d.
Air Force lost QB Tim Jefferson in the 1Q but Connor Dietz filled in well and even though he only threw 1 pass, he rushed 6 times for 87 yds. AF, despite being in a flat spot, did lead 35-0 at the half with a 240-115 yd edge. New Mexico fumbled the punt on their own 24 and was int’d with 3:06 left in the half setting up an AF TD with 1:55 left. NM was int’d at the AF14 and missed 40 and 30 yd FG’s on their 3 poss in the 2H resulting in a 42-0 shutout. Read more…
During the offseason I had just one weekend blog but each week during the season I will take a look at the Top 25 performances from the just completed week with a little analysis as well as a quick review of the past weekend. On Monday I will give you my News & Notes where I delve deeper into every game that was played this past weekend, breaking down individual drives and giving you misleading finals and other interesting tidbits.
As far as my game grades go after the 2008 season was completed I devised a power ratings system, which lets me analyze at what level each team played during an individual game. This “game grade” takes into account the yards rushing, yards passing, points scored, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed and factors them in against the opponent played and even factors in the site the game was played at.
With all these factors taken into consideration you will see teams that lost the game having a better individual game grade than teams that beat them simply because the team they played was superior and much less was expected of them.
Top 25 Game Grades (Team Performances) Week 9
|
*Means Garbage Yards/Pts Were Subtracted (Includes all OT Yds/Pts)
|
|
|
|
|
OFF |
OFF |
OFF |
DEF |
DEF |
DEF |
Gm |
|
Rank
|
|
|
FOE |
RUSH |
PASS |
PTS |
RUSH |
PASS |
PTS |
Grade |
|
1
|
OKLAHOMA |
AT |
Kansas St |
170 |
520 |
58 |
182 |
58 |
17 |
122.7 |
|
2
|
TEXAS |
AT |
Kansas |
441 |
149 |
43 |
-2 |
48 |
0 |
109.7 |
|
3
|
IOWA ST |
AT |
Texas Tech |
370 |
140 |
41 |
98 |
191 |
7 |
107.5 |
|
4
|
STANFORD |
AT |
USC |
137 |
298 |
34 |
135 |
235 |
34 |
99.6 |
|
5
|
TULSA |
|
SMU |
177 |
274 |
38 |
85 |
180 |
7 |
99.0 |
|
6
|
NEBRASKA |
|
Michigan St |
187 |
83 |
24 |
101 |
86 |
3 |
98.2 |
|
7
|
FLORIDA ST |
|
NC State |
123 |
321 |
34 |
36 |
130 |
0 |
97.9 |
|
8
|
MICHIGAN |
|
Purdue |
339 |
196 |
36 |
78 |
196 |
7 |
96.8 |
|
9
|
NOTRE DAME |
|
Navy |
182 |
260 |
56 |
196 |
33 |
14 |
96.0 |
|
10
|
ARMY |
|
FORDHAM |
514 |
30 |
55 |
69 |
17 |
0 |
95.7 |
|
11
|
GEORGIA TECH |
|
Clemson |
383 |
60 |
31 |
93 |
303 |
17 |
95.1 |
|
12
|
MARSHALL |
|
UAB |
138 |
291 |
59 |
27 |
225 |
7 |
94.1 |
|
13
|
GEORGIA |
AT |
Florida |
186 |
168 |
24 |
-9 |
245 |
20 |
93.2 |
|
14
|
S CAROLINA |
AT |
Tennessee |
231 |
87 |
14 |
35 |
153 |
3 |
93.0 |
|
15
|
OKLAHOMA ST |
|
Baylor |
325 |
274 |
59 |
177 |
445 |
24 |
92.1 |
|
16
|
N CAROLINA |
|
Wake Forest |
224 |
338 |
49 |
121 |
210 |
24 |
91.6 |
|
17
|
OHIO ST |
|
Wisconsin |
267 |
89 |
33 |
104 |
253 |
29 |
91.6 |
|
18
|
USC |
|
Stanford |
135 |
235 |
34 |
137 |
298 |
34 |
91.0 |
|
19
|
MISSOURI |
AT |
Texas A&M |
266 |
188 |
31 |
186 |
306 |
31 |
90.2 |
|
20
|
WASHINGTON |
|
Arizona |
179 |
310 |
42 |
36 |
388 |
31 |
89.4 |
|
21
|
HOUSTON |
|
Rice |
122 |
534 |
73 |
359 |
116 |
34 |
88.8 |
|
22
|
UCLA |
|
California |
294 |
92 |
31 |
134 |
199 |
14 |
88.6 |
|
23
|
BYU |
AT |
TCU |
139 |
215 |
28 |
136 |
147 |
38 |
88.0 |
|
23
|
S MISS |
AT |
UTEP |
260 |
190 |
31 |
68 |
194 |
13 |
88.0 |
|
25
|
TEXAS A&M |
|
Missouri |
186 |
306 |
31 |
266 |
188 |
31 |
87.2 |
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For the last couple of years I have picked the games involving the Top 25 teams and thrown in a couple of upset picks. This year I thought you might be interested in who I think will win EACH FBS game this weekend. Every Friday I will give you my personal forecast on every game that involves a FBS team.
I list the projected scores from my computers forecast. Another column shows you the computers yardage forecast for each game. I think it will be interesting to see who the computer picks to win the yardage battle and see if they win the game. In my College Football magazine I have the plus and minus ratings. I update them weekly and then factor in the home edge and I will show you who the Plus Minus ratings forecast. I will also list who Vegas has favored to win each week and we can see how they do picking the actual winners of games. There is also a WEEKLY POLL which you can enter for free each week. What I will do is on Friday morning I will tabulate the vote on each game and list who the fans are picking to win the games.
Listed below are each of these category picks for this week and I will then have a running total for the season for them! Here are the selections……. Read more…
Every week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer’s projected box score for each game. Last week the Top 25 Forecasts went 17-2 (89%) and so far this season I am 120-19 (86%).
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 205-60 (77%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
#3 OKLAHOMA ST VS BAYLOR
|
|
Rushing
|
Passing
|
Points
|
TO’s
|
ST
|
| BAYLOR |
203 |
265
|
32
|
3.7
|
-
|
| OKLAHOMA ST |
207
|
440
|
56
|
1.5
|
•••
|
|
|
|
OSU has dominated winning 14 of 15. LY OSU had a schl record 725 yds in a 55-28 blowout (led 27-0 half) in what was supposed to be a B12 South showdown. Since their 3-0 Top 15 non-conf start the Bears have lost 2 of 3 in B12 play with the D allowing 39 ppg and 487 ypg in conf play. Two of the FBS’s best pitch-catch combos are on display in BU’s Griffin (#7 pass eff w/325, 78%, 22-2, 295 rush) to Wright (#5 FBS w/55, 13.8, 9 TD) and OSU’s Weeden (#17 pass eff with 348, 72%, 19-7) to Blackmon (61 rec, 10.9). BU is #78 pass eff D (240, 57%, 18-6). OSU won their 10th straight outside of Stillwater 45-24 over Missouri. HC Gundy said OSU could’ve had 40 by HT if not for the many dropped balls but the Cowboys feasted on 4 2H TO’s from MU QB Franklin which set up 3 TD’s for the win despite missing WR’s Blackmon (concussion) and Anyiam (OFY foot) in the 2H but RB Randle (690, 5.7, 12 TD) has continued to shine. The Cowboys have forced 22 TO in the L/5 gms. OSU has big edges on D (#39-88) and ST (#23-92). OSU is now my pick at this point to play Bama in the national title gm and since BU upset them in ‘05, OSU has won by 42, 31, 28, 27 and 27 and that trend continues here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 59 BAYLOR 38
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Read more…
