Since my magazine went to press in early May there have been three significant changes in college football and three of the most popular questions asked of me on facebook and twitter concern North Carolina, Ohio St and Wisconsin.
I will address these three teams and my updated outlooks on each team in today’s blog. First, I want to say that many magazines and publications specifically websites/writers when predicting the conferences this upcoming season have two advantages over my publication and the other three publications that go to press in May (Athlon, Lindy’s, Sporting News). First, when these writers make their predictions in July/August they are reading the material/information from the already published magazines and have our predictions right in their hands. All of the countless hours we spend coming up with our picks and forecasts are now there at their fingertips to go off of. Second, they also have the advantage of having the latest news/rosters/transfers and happenings. Let’s face it a lot can happen in a 3-month period in college football especially with recent history.
For example, last year I was blind-sided with both USC and North Carolina as the NCAA hit both teams hard after my magazine was sent to press. USC was my pick to win the Pac-10 last year before scholarships were taken away, players transferred and a bowl ban was set in place. I also had North Carolina picked much higher than other publications because they had the most talented defense in the country only to have nearly a dozen players suspended for much of the season. Because I had both these teams picked higher than my competitors and with a few surprise victories by some teams I though less highly of, I did not finish 2010 as the most accurate magazine for the season (over 13-years still #1). Read more…
I am always looking for new stats and new ways to analyze teams each and every year. In my last blog I gave you some information on how YPP (yards per point) affects a team’s record from season to season and a lot of that information will be featured in my upcoming college preview magazine.
This year I expanded this same type of concept by taking a look at points per play. Generally, you would think that the teams’ with the top scoring offenses in ppg would be ranked at the top but there are some noticeable differences. Read more…
Well here it is, my projected AP Top 10 for next year as of February 11, 2011! I will mention it now and I will mention it numerous times throughout today’s blog but this is not MY preseason Top 10 for next year, it is where I project the AP Top 10 to come out at the start of the season.
Most AP voters usually look at a couple of criteria when they evaluate a team for the upcoming season. First they look at the number of returning starters that the team has coming back particularly at the offensive skill positions. A team that returns its starting QB and a combination of its RB and WRs is often times more highly thought of than a team that loses its starting QB but returns its entire offensive line. Similarly a team that returns most of its starters on offense but loses a lot of its defensive playmakers usually is more highly thought of than a team that returns a majority of its defensive starters but loses its skill position players on offense.
Another factor that is heavily weighted is the performance of the team in the bowl game, which undoubtedly is the lasting image of that team in the offseason. A team coming off a huge bowl win usually is more highly thought of than a team that is coming off a bowl loss regardless of what their schedule looks like for the upcoming season.
Using these criteria and a few more, I project the preseason AP Top 10 every year at the conclusion of the previous season, which in most cases is nearly 6 months in advance. Now as you all know, a lot can happen from January to August including injuries, suspensions, transfers, etc. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: Alabama, AP, AP Top 10 Projection, Arkansas, blog, Boise St, college football, Florida St, LSU, Nebraska, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Oregon, phil steele, South Carolina, Stanford, Texas A&M, Top 10, wisconsin
The AP Poll was released over the weekend and today I can officially come up with Overrated and Underrated teams for the upcoming year.
First, here is the Preseason AP Top 25. Read more…
Categories: Offseason Notes Tags: ap poll, Arizona, Auburn, blog, college football, Georgia Tech, Houston, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Overrated, phil steele, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Texas, Underrated, wisconsin
The college football season is fast approaching and in today’s blog I will give you a sneak peak at some of the early marquee college football non-conference games and how I think they will shake out as of right now. Also included is your current voting tallies for each of these games.
Remember if you visit the homepage right now, you can get a head start on voting in the Non-Conference Poll with all the non-conference games. To see where you rank against other voters, as soon as your vote is entered in, you will see the % stacked with or against you. In the next day or two the four remaining non-BCS conferences will be added on the front page. The Non-Conference Poll will run until Sunday, Aug 29th. On Monday the 30th, look for the Weekly Polls to start. There are games every day Thursday September 2nd thru Monday September 6th as the first week of the season looks to kick off with a bang! Weekly prizes will be awarded throughout the season. Read more…
Categories: College Football Forecasts, College Football Picks Tags: Alabama, Arizona St, Auburn, blog, Boise St, Clemson, college football, Connecticut, Florida St, Forecasts, LSU, Marquee Games, Miami Fl, Michigan, Non-Conference Polls, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Oregon, Oregon St, Penn St, phil steele, Pittsburgh, TCU, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia Tech, wisconsin
